Population Research – United Nations Population Division

1999 Population Aging Wall Chart
United Nations
Population Division
Department of Economic and Social Affairs

With the continuation of fertility decline and increase in life expectancy, the population of the world will age much faster in the next half-century than previously. The median age increased from 23.5 years in 1950 to 26.1 years in 1998. By 2050, the median age is projected to reach 37.8 years.Table 1. Median age by major area, 1950, 1998 and 2050
(medium variant projections)

Statistics from the Population chart:

• The proportion of children, less than 15 year old, declined from 34 per cent in 1950 to 30 per cent in 1998 while the proportion of older persons, aged 60 or over, increased from 8 to 10 per cent over the same period.
• By 2050, it is expected, according to the medium variant projection, that the proportion of children will have declined by one-third of its 1998 level, to 20 per cent, and that the proportion of older persons will have more than doubled, to 22 per cent, exceeding the proportion of children.
• The more developed regions have been leading the process of population ageing since its onset at the beginning of this century. In 1950 the proportion of children in these regions was 27 per cent while that of older persons was 12 per cent. In 1998, for the first time the proportion of older persons exceeded that of children, respectively at 19.1 and 18.8 per cent.
• By 2050, the more developed regions will have a very old population with the proportion of older persons projected to increase to 33 percent in 2050, while the proportion of children will decline to 15 percent.
• The median age in developed nations passed from 28.6 years in 1950 to 36.8 in 1998 and is projected to climb to 45.6 in 2050.
• Ageing has been much slower until now in the less developed regions. The proportion of children has declined from 38 per cent in 1950 to 33 per cent in 1998, while the proportion of older persons has increased from 6 to 8 per cent during the same period.
• By 2050, the proportion of older persons will increase three-fold to 21 per cent, while the proportion of children will decline by more than one third to 20 per cent.
• The median age increased from 21.3 years in 1950 to 23.9 in 1998 and is projected to reach 36.7 in 2050. By then the less developed regions will have an age structure similar to that of the more developed regions half-a-century earlier.
• The ageing process is more dramatic when one looks at the growth of the number of older persons. For the world, it will mean an increase from 580 million older persons in 1998 to almost two billion (1,970 million) in 2050. The change will be relatively moderate in the more developed regions, from 226 million in 1998 to 376 million in 2050, a two-third increase. The increase will be much more dramatic in the less developed regions, where the population aged 60 or over will be multiplied more than nine times, from 171 million in 1998 to 1,594 million in 2050.
• Europe is, and is projected to remain, the major area of the world most affected by ageing. The proportion of children is projected to decline from 18 percent in 1998 to 14 per cent in 2050 while the proportion of older persons will increase from 20 per cent in 1998 to 35 per cent in 2050. By then, the proportion of older persons will be nearly two-and-a half times that of children and one in every three persons will be 60 years or above.
• The median age is projected to increase from 37.1 years in 1998 to 47.4 in 2050. Southern Europe, with a proportion of children of 16 per cent and of older persons of 22 per cent in 1998, is the world region with the oldest population. By 2050, the proportion of children will have declined to 13 per cent while the proportion of older persons will have reached 39 per cent.
• The oldest country in the world in 1998 is Italy, with 1.6 persons aged 60 or above for each person below 15 years of age, followed by Greece, Japan, Spain and Germany. By 2050, the oldest country of the world will be Spain, closely followed by Italy, with respectively 3.6 and 3.4 persons aged 60 or above for each person below 15 years of age.
• The other areas of the world most touched by ageing are, in decreasing order, Northern America, Oceania, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean.
• Africa is the youngest major area of the world with a proportion of children of 43 per cent and a proportion of older persons of 5 per cent in 1998. Eastern Africa, with a proportion of children of 46 per cent and a proportion of older persons of 4 percent in 1998 is the world youngest region and Uganda is the world’s youngest country with one of every 31 persons aged 60 or over, followed by Zambia and Yemen. By 2050, Africa will still have a young age structure, with twice as many children as elderly, respectively 24 per cent and 12 percent in 2050.