Six Billion People: The Good News
Steve Chapman
Chicago Tribune
Almost overlooked in the news coverage is that mankind has made huge strides in voluntarily reducing population growth–to the point that many of us could live to see the beginning of a decline in the number of people in the world. The news at the millennium is that world population will never again grow as it has in the last century.
It should be remembered that this population milestone is not a symptom of failure but a sign of success. In the past, people avoided overpopulation by the simple course of dying like flies. Disease, accidents and starvation exacted a cruel and inescapable toll. As United Nations Population Division Director Joseph Chamie explains, the population boom of the 20th Century came about because we found ways to prevent death and extend life–what he calls “humanity’s greatest achievement.”
Contrary to what was commonly predicted, the growing number of people has been accompanied by steadily rising standards of living. Like Jesus dividing the loaves and fishes to feed the multitudes, human ingenuity has found ways to expand the bounty of the Earth to sustain more people than our ancestors could have imagined. Basic commodities, such as food, housing and clothing, are more abundant and affordable than ever.
In the meantime, it appears, the population “bomb” has been defused. Global population isn’t likely to double again in the next 50 years, if ever. The UN Population Division’s mid-range projection, the one it considers most probable, envisions an increase to 8.9 billion people by 2050. Under its “low” projection, however, the total would peak at 7.5 billion around 2040 and actually decline to 7.3 billion in the following decade.
