The Population Explosion Is Over
Ben Wattenberg
Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute
Speculation is in season. When people have fewer babies and live longer, the median age of society climbs. In 1990, about 6 percent of the world’s population was over age 65. By 2050, that figure will be in the 15-to-19 percent range — prompting a “grayby boom.” By having relatively few children, people today are eroding the population base that should pay for their pensions in their old age. In 1955 there were nine American workers to support each Social Security recipient. Today there are three. By 2030, the number is expected to be two.
Where will the money come from? No one knows. Perhaps from funds not spent to support children who are never born. Perhaps from tax increases or benefit cuts — both tough to sell politically. Perhaps from immigration or higher fertility. Perhaps from the partial privatization of Social Security or from long-term economic growth more robust than expected.